EURUSD Technical Analysis: Euro Stalls Below Weak High as Equal Lows Sit Exposed

The broader short-term trend remains bullish after a strong impulsive rally off the strong low near 1.1582, confirmed by repeated CHoCH and BOS structure shifts. Price is now consolidating below a rejected weak high at 1.1642, with today’s US labor market data the main catalyst for the next directional push.

Today’s Economic Calendar

Time (GMT)	Economic Event	Impact	Possible Effect on EURUSD
12:30	US Nonfarm Payrolls (Aug)	High	A strong beat above the ~55K consensus supports the Dollar and pressures EURUSD; a soft print revives Fed pause bets and lifts the pair
12:30	US Unemployment Rate (Aug)	High	A rise from 4.1% weighs on the Dollar and helps EURUSD; a steady reading limits upside
12:30	US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)	Medium	Hotter wage growth supports the Dollar, a headwind for EURUSD

No high-impact Eurozone releases are scheduled today; the session is USD-driven.

EURUSD Market Structure Analysis

The M15 chart shows a textbook bullish sequence starting from the strong low near 1.1582. Price swept the equal highs resting above the prior range, then confirmed a change of character that flipped the short-term bias from bearish to bullish. A second CHoCH extended that shift, and the rally accelerated through a clean break of structure into the session’s strongest push.

That advance topped out at 1.16420, marked as a weak high because the rejection was immediate and lacked follow-through buying. The pullback since has built a range with two equal lows near 1.1622–1.1626, a classic resting-liquidity pattern under smart money concepts. A minor BOS inside the range shows buyers still active, but price has not managed a fresh push through the weak high.

Price now trades around 1.16284, caught between the equal lows above a demand order block at 1.16140–1.16180 and deeper unmitigated zones near 1.15980–1.16020 and 1.15820–1.15860 (the origin of the strong low). Volume has thinned during the consolidation, consistent with the market building liquidity before the Nonfarm Payrolls release rather than committing to a breakout.

EURUSD Trading Plan Today

Entry Plan	Market Bias	Entry Zone	Stop Loss	Take Profit 1	Take Profit 2	Risk Reward	Possible Gain (Pips)
1	Bullish	1.1614–1.1618 (demand retest after EQL sweep)	1.1610	1.1626	1.1642	1:3	80–240
2	Bearish (breakdown)	1.1611–1.1613 (retest after break)	1.1618	1.1602	1.1586	1:3.8	90–270
3	Bullish (breakout)	1.1643–1.1646 (retest after reclaim)	1.1636	1.1650	1.1660	1:1.5	40–140
4	Bearish (range rejection)	1.1629–1.1632 (range top rejection)	1.1637	1.1622	1.1614	1:1.6	70–160

Confirmation: wait for a clean M15 candle close inside the stated zone with a rejection wick or a structure break before entering; avoid entries during the NFP release window itself.

EURUSD Price Outlook

Bullish Scenario: A reclaim and M15 close above 1.1642 confirms buyers have absorbed the weak-high supply. Confirmation comes from a retest that holds as support. Targets sit at 1.1650 and 1.1660. Invalidation is a close back below 1.1626.

Bearish Scenario: A confirmed break and close below 1.1614 sweeps the demand block and opens the next leg lower. Confirmation requires a retest of the broken zone as resistance. Targets are 1.1602 and the strong low near 1.1586. Invalidation is a reclaim of 1.1622.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

Level	Technical Reason
Resistance 2	1.16420 — Weak high, failed breakout swing
Resistance 1	1.16300 — Minor BOS high inside consolidation
Pivot	1.16260 — Equal lows, resting liquidity
Support 1	1.16140 — Demand order block, prior CHoCH origin
Support 2	1.15820 — Strong low, structural base of the rally

What Happened in Last Week

EUR/USD closed the prior week at 1.1585 after falling roughly 0.6% on Friday, as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish debut lifted the Dollar broadly and overshadowed firm French and Spanish inflation prints that had strengthened bets on an ECB hike as early as September. That Fed-ECB policy divergence set the tone heading into this week, and it is visible on the chart: the strong low near 1.1582 marks where dip-buyers stepped in before the pair staged a sharp recovery through repeated CHoCH and BOS structure shifts into Thursday’s push toward 1.1642.

This Week’s Technical and News Impact Overall

Structurally, EUR/USD has moved from a defensive base at the strong low into a genuine bullish sequence, though momentum has cooled just below the weak high. The August Nonfarm Payrolls print, due at 12:30 GMT with a consensus near 55K against July’s -23K, is the dominant catalyst for the remainder of the session. A soft print would revive Fed pause expectations, widen the case against further Dollar strength, and give the pair a real shot at clearing 1.1642 toward 1.1660. A hot print does the opposite, reinforcing the post-Jackson Hole Dollar bid and increasing the odds of a liquidity sweep through the equal lows toward the demand zones below. The broader Fed-ECB divergence theme, with markets leaning toward a September ECB hike, remains supportive for the Euro on any pullback that holds structure.

Geopolitical Factors and Market Impact

The Iran-related Middle East tensions that dominated headlines earlier this week remain the main unscheduled risk for currency markets. Escalation tends to broadly support the Dollar and other traditional havens over the Euro, given the Eurozone’s greater proximity and energy exposure to the region. A cooling in that risk, as suggested by recent comments pointing to a contained response, removes some of that Dollar support and leaves today’s session more purely a function of the Nonfarm Payrolls outcome and Fed-ECB rate-path expectations.

Final Outlook

EURUSD Technical Analysis stays constructively bullish above 1.16140, with 1.16420 as the level to reclaim for continuation toward 1.16600. Confirmation needs a clean M15 close beyond either boundary; invalidation is a close back below the strong low structure near 1.15820 ahead of today’s Nonfarm Payrolls release.

Analyst’s Note

Two equal lows sitting directly under a rejected weak high is a setup built for a stop run — expect the sweep before the real move, not the other way around.

Read More

For traders following this EURUSD Technical Analysis, these related FXRecap guides add useful context:

• The repeated structure shifts on this chart are explained further in Change of Character (CHoCH) and Break of Structure
• The demand zones used in today’s plan are covered in Order Block Trading Strategy
• For the broader framework behind these reads, see Smart Money Concepts
• Before sizing any of today’s entry plans, review Forex Leverage

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